Within five years, Gwern will be hired as a “statistician columnist” by a mainstream blog; “mainstream blog” is defined as a blog with no less than 1/6th of the annual traffic theverge.com currently gets.
Created by halfwit on 2013-07-13; known on 2018-07-14; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
- halfwit estimated 20% on 2013-07-13
- halfwit changed the deadline from “on 2018-07-13” and changed their prediction from “Within five years, Gwern will be hired as a “statistician columnist” by a mainstream blog; “mainstream blog” is defined as a blog with no less than 1/6th of annual the traffic theverge.com currently gets.” on 2013-07-13
- gwern estimated 10% on 2013-07-14
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2013-07-15
- RandomThinker estimated 10% on 2013-07-16
- Oscar_Cunningham said “Does this obtain if Gwern is hired by a newspaper with an online/blog component?” on 2013-07-29
- PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2013-11-14
- olivia estimated 10% on 2013-11-15
- Nithi estimated 2% on 2014-01-23
- PseudonymousUser estimated 13% on 2016-03-17
- Andrew MacFie estimated 5% on 2016-04-04
- JoshuaZ said “How much traffic did theverge get in 2013?” on 2016-04-04
- enolan estimated 2% on 2018-06-08
- enolan judged this prediction wrong on 2018-08-27.