Wikileaks will release the AES key to their insurance file in 2011

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “the case against Assange in England seems to be faltering, and if that fails, I don’t see any agencies stepping up for round 2 and triggering the file” on 2011-01-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-01-03
• gimpf estimated 10% on 2011-01-09
• fergus estimated 10% on 2011-08-18
• PseudonymousUser said “password for the cablegate file was leaked, but this was not the insurance file” on 2012-01-03
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-03.
• Larklight said “10” on 2012-01-03