SpaceX to land a version of Starship on Mars by the end of 2026.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-24; known on 2027-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 51% on 2021-03-24
• JoshuaZ said “Context is Musk’s prediction that they will land a Starship on Mars well before 2030. ” on 2021-03-24
• JoshuaZ said “See also this thread https://old.reddit.com/r/EnoughMuskSpam/comments/mbu6ai/so_well_before_means_2026/ where some seem very skeptical (understandable given the subreddit). ” on 2021-03-24
• lui estimated 26% on 2021-03-28
• PseudonymousUser estimated 13% on 2021-04-05
• Medea estimated 40% on 2021-04-09
• JoshuaZ said “See also https://predictionbook.com/predictions/204159 for similar moon claim. ” on 2021-04-18
• JoshuaZ said “See also related already resolved prediction https://predictionbook.com/predictions/177997 .” on 2021-04-18
• gallerdude estimated 33% on 2021-04-20
• n99 estimated 10% on 2022-10-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 16% and said “Starship seems to be slowing down and running into a lot more snags.” on 2022-10-29