SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-16; known on 2027-01-01; judged right by casey123 on 2021-04-29.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2021-04-16
  • JoshuaZ said “Context is this Twitter thread https://twitter.com/JoshuaZed1/status/1383156202591428612 . Bet with CommonSenseSkeptic. Loser donates $50 to charity of winner’s choice.on 2021-04-16
  • JoshuaZ estimated 54% and said “Based on details of reading the source selection document. on 2021-04-17
  • JoshuaZ said “(Note: CommonSenseSkeptic has apparently blocked me on Twitter now. I estimate a low probability of them donating if this occurs.)on 2021-04-18
  • JoshuaZ said “See https://predictionbook.com/predictions/203833 for same claim about moon. on 2021-04-18
  • gallerdude estimated 40% on 2021-04-20
  • JoshuaZ said “Sorry, 203833 is same claim for Mars.on 2021-04-22
  • JoshuaZ estimated 53% and said “Based on Blue proteston 2021-04-27
  • casey123 estimated 65% on 2021-04-29
  • casey123 estimated 40% on 2021-04-29
  • casey123   judged this prediction right on 2021-04-29.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2021-04-29.
  • JoshuaZ said “Please do not mark predictions right or wrong before they have happened. on 2021-04-29
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2021-04-30.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2021-04-30.
  • JoshuaZ said “Gah. Since prediction was judged it no longer seems to be allowing updates. Will make a new copy.on 2021-04-30
  • JoshuaZ said “Copied over to https://predictionbook.com/predictions/204313 . on 2021-04-30
  • Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction unknown on 2021-05-04.

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