SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-16; known on 2027-01-01; judged unknown by Jayson Virissimo on 2021-05-04.

• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2021-04-16
• JoshuaZ said “Context is this Twitter thread https://twitter.com/JoshuaZed1/status/1383156202591428612 . Bet with CommonSenseSkeptic. Loser donates $50 to charity of winner’s choice.” on 2021-04-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 54% and said “Based on details of reading the source selection document. ” on 2021-04-17
• JoshuaZ said “(Note: CommonSenseSkeptic has apparently blocked me on Twitter now. I estimate a low probability of them donating if this occurs.)” on 2021-04-18
• JoshuaZ said “See https://predictionbook.com/predictions/203833 for same claim about moon. ” on 2021-04-18
• gallerdude estimated 40% on 2021-04-20
• JoshuaZ said “Sorry, 203833 is same claim for Mars.” on 2021-04-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 53% and said “Based on Blue protest” on 2021-04-27
• casey123 estimated 65% on 2021-04-29
• casey123 estimated 40% on 2021-04-29
• casey123   judged this prediction right on 2021-04-29.
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2021-04-29.
• JoshuaZ said “Please do not mark predictions right or wrong before they have happened. ” on 2021-04-29
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2021-04-30.
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2021-04-30.
• JoshuaZ said “Gah. Since prediction was judged it no longer seems to be allowing updates. Will make a new copy.” on 2021-04-30
• JoshuaZ said “Copied over to https://predictionbook.com/predictions/204313 . ” on 2021-04-30
• Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction unknown on 2021-05-04.