The target of Wikileaks's major American bank leak will be Bank of America

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-07-05.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “context: http://blogs.forbes.com/andygreenberg/2010/11/29/an-interview-with-wikileaks-julian-assange/” on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “cf. prediction that leak of any major american bank will be in 2011: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2039” on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “I push the date out a year because the release might not happen in 1 year, but it ought to in 2 years.” on 2011-01-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2011-01-03
• JoshuaZ said “So given everything that happened how are we going to judge this? ” on 2013-01-01
• gwern said “I’m going to delay it another 2 years” on 2013-01-01
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2013-01-01” on 2013-01-01
• RandomThinker said “Did this ever happen? Already called a hoax in 2011:http://www.cnbc.com/id/42762811” on 2015-01-21
• Avadak estimated 70% on 2015-05-02
• JoshuaZ said “Can we label this as wrong since no major leak occurred? ” on 2015-05-02
• JoshuaZ said “Or does it make more sense to just withdraw the prediction? ” on 2015-05-02
• Afforess   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-07-05.