HP MoR: It will be revealed (either in the story or by Eliezer outside it) that it is impossible to lie in Parseltongue.

Created by 75th on 2013-07-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.

  • 75th estimated 70% on 2013-07-17
  • 75th changed the deadline from “on 2015-12-31” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR: It will be revealed (either in the story or by Eliezer outside it) that it is impossible to lie in Parseltongue.” on 2013-07-17
  • gwern estimated 50% on 2013-07-19
  • HonoreDB estimated 50% on 2013-07-19
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2013-07-19
  • TheOriginalSoni estimated 85% and said “The current prediction discussions seem pretty strong and consistent with this predictionon 2013-07-25
  • JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2013-07-25
  • mjr estimated 60% on 2013-07-26
  • ArisKatsaris estimated 70% on 2013-07-26
  • esran estimated 30% on 2013-07-28
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 30% and said “I don’t remember any evidence for this, so my prediction is based only on your predictions.on 2013-07-29
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 45% on 2013-07-31
  • lavalamp estimated 20% on 2013-07-31
  • holycow81 estimated 22% on 2013-08-04
  • E. E. Smith estimated 9% on 2013-08-04
  • ygert estimated 55% on 2013-08-13
  • nigr estimated 50% and said “wowon 2013-08-15
  • 75th  judged this prediction right on 2015-03-03.

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