Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2015.

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

• gwern estimated 18% on 2011-01-02
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-01” on 2011-01-02
• gwern said “latest news: http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/ halting all trading activity. will they reopen or will it be closed for good…?” on 2013-03-11
• RandomThinker said “Good prediction! I wish I saw that before” on 2013-03-12
• RandomThinker said “Don’t know if I would have said over 25% either. Adding merged/be sold raises it a bit.” on 2013-03-12
• simplicio said “Whew, glad my dutch books came through before settling “at market value.” This is annoying.” on 2013-03-12
• kuudes estimated 95% and said ““It is our intention to fully liquidate all remaining customer accounts by December 31, 2014.” http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/” on 2014-12-01
• qznc estimated 20% and said “I predict ‘no news’” on 2014-12-03
• kuudes estimated 60% and said “I guess it is very possible they fail in closing.” on 2014-12-05
• gwern said “hm. not sure. if they kick out all existing customers and start up an entirely new prediction market, is it really still Intrade?” on 2015-01-01
• kuudes   judged this prediction right on 2015-01-01.