HP MoR: An event will take place between May 14th and May 16th which either narrowly invokes or narrowly avoids Professor McGonagall's ch.17 threat to “string [Harry] up by the gates of Hogwarts with [his] own intestines and pour fire down [his] throat.”
Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-18; known on 2014-05-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
- Cakoluchiam estimated 80% on 2013-07-18
- Cakoluchiam changed the deadline from “on 2014-05-15” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Some big event will take place between May 14th and May 16th (story time), either narrowly invoking or narrowly avoiding Professor McGonagall's chapter 17 threat to "string [Harry] up by the gates of Hogwarts with [his] own intestines and pour fire” on 2013-07-18
- Cakoluchiam changed the deadline from “on 2014-05-15” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR: An event will take place between May 14th and May 16th (story time), that either narrowly invokes or narrowly avoids Professor McGonagall's ch.17 threat to "string [Harry] up by the gates of Hogwarts with [his] own intestines and pour fire down [hi” on 2013-07-18
- gwern said “that sounds rather vague. harry gets in serious trouble all the time” on 2013-07-19
- TheOriginalSoni said “But it’s still has a very definite prediction here – “Quirell is fired”” on 2013-07-25
- nigr estimated 0% and said “too many possibilities” on 2013-08-15
- jbluphin estimated 75% on 2014-02-01
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-10.