Yvain will be fired (or asked to resign) from his Psychiatrist position due to breach of confidentiality in the next 2 years.

Created by Tenoke on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-07-18; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2015-07-19.

• Tenoke estimated 5% on 2013-07-18
• gwern estimated 15% and said “part of the problem here is whether Yvain will admit to it should it happen, or even know – one doesn’t always learn the real reason one is asked to leave or one’s contract is not removed or any of the other dodges available” on 2013-07-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2013-07-19
• HonoreDB estimated 8% on 2013-07-19
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% and said ““breach of confidentiality” is a very specific reason. There are many similar charges that could get you fired.” on 2013-07-19
• gwern said “I am guessing Tenoke is not defining this so legalistically, Jayson” on 2013-07-20
• Porejide estimated 1% and said “comparing what he writes (so far) to what something like Gawande writes, it’s nbd. case studies have a broad history in medicine” on 2013-07-21
• Malcolm Ocean estimated 4% and said “It says this will be known in 1 year…?” on 2013-07-22
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% on 2013-07-29
• High_Fiber_Twigs said “What blog posts is this in reference to?” on 2013-08-19
• Tenoke changed the deadline from “on 2014-07-18” on 2013-10-16
• Tenoke said “It isn’t in reference to any one thing in particular but I was influenced by his July posts, High_Fiber_Twigs .And yes, I am using the layman definition of ‘breach of confidentiality’, not the legal one. (sorry)” on 2013-10-16
• oooo estimated 1% and said “The conjunction “due to breach of confidentiality” makes this unlikely. He could be asked to resign for other reasons, but that would not satisfy this prediction.” on 2013-10-23
• Rowan93 estimated 1% on 2014-01-24
• David estimated 0% on 2015-06-23
• kuudes estimated 1% on 2015-07-16
• Malcolm Ocean   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-07-19.