Trump reelected in 2024.

Created by bsl5265 on 2021-11-08; known on 2024-11-05

• bsl5265 estimated 60% on 2021-11-08
• radnev estimated 40% on 2021-11-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 20% on 2021-11-10
• jacobgreenleaf estimated 40% on 2021-11-10
• Ppau estimated 35% on 2021-11-11
• khan estimated 52% on 2021-11-13
• sty.silver estimated 28% on 2021-11-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 24% on 2021-11-20
• EloiseRosen estimated 22% on 2021-11-28
• Baeboo estimated 24% on 2021-11-30
• sty.silver estimated 37% on 2021-12-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 23% on 2021-12-05
• Leo estimated 15% on 2021-12-06
• jakebeardsley estimated 25% and said “I’m not completely sure that Trump will run again, so I’m starting with lower credence than some. If he runs, he will probably get the nomination, but lose the presidency. Also, he might die before then. ” on 2021-12-17
• kallman estimated 40% and said “I didn’t think he could win the first time, though. I hope he’s ineligible due to jail or death, but that’s not for me to decide.” on 2022-01-03
• JoshuaZ said “Being in jail doesn’t make you ineligible. See Eugene V. Debbs. ” on 2022-01-03
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% and said “#politics” on 2022-01-04
• sty.silver estimated 40% on 2022-01-04
• Baeboo estimated 26% on 2022-01-04
• Reinersaltaccount estimated 30% and said “#politics” on 2023-02-04