Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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The Russo-Ukrainian war is still ongoing ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2028-02-24.
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Trump becoming President in 2025. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2025-01-22.
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Marco Rubio will be Donald Trump's VP pick ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-01; known in 29 days.
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The British Labour Party will not win the next general election. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-27; known on 2025-01-25.
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a nationwide ban on abortion goes into effect in the next 6 years, based on fetal personhood. ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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Ron DeSantis runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 81% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-25; known in 29 days.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024. ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-27; known 24 days ago.
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Biden to announce a No Fly Zone while in Europe. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-21; known on 2024-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-05-14.
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Danes will vote yes to abolish Denmark's opt-out from EU's common security and defense policy ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-07; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-01.
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Putin serves as President of Russia for the remainder of his current term ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.
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Politics, Finland – Finland starts process to join NATO by end of 2022 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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Politics, US – Will the US announce intent to allow any Ukrainian citizen who reach its borders to stay until Russia is no longer attacking or occupying Ukraine, before July 1st 2022? ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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Trump reelected in 2024. ( 31% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bsl5265 on 2021-11-08; known 28 days ago.
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China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. ( 20% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2021-04-09; known on 2025-12-31.
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Joe Biden has a near-death experience in the next two years ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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The U.S. will go to war (>20,000 new troop deployment) before the end of Biden/Harris' first term. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2021-01-22; known on 2025-01-20.
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Marijuana will be unscheduled, taxed and regulated similar to alcohol at a federal level in the United States before 2025. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01; known in 30 days.
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Joe Biden runs for president in 2024 ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-01-16.
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Donald Trump will die within five years. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.
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Joe Biden will die within five years. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.
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Biden to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2023-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-31.
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The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.