First Starship attempt to reach orbit or near orbit will either never reach supersonic speed or will break up before reaching Max Q.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2021-12-23
• JoshuaZ said “Based on comment from https://old.reddit.com/r/TrueSpace/comments/rlhi99/this_sub_is_usually_has_the_best_good_faith/hpkvn5h/ . ” on 2021-12-23
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% and said “#spacex” on 2021-12-23
• azatris estimated 34% on 2022-01-01
• chemotaxis101 estimated 25% on 2022-01-01
• Paul.David.Carr estimated 20% on 2022-02-28
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2023-01-01” on 2023-01-01
• JoshuaZ said “Bumping deadline by a year.” on 2023-01-01