Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 51% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 10902 | 15120 | 15632 | 16330 | 29766 | 7776 | 95526 |
Recent Predictions
-
SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ 14 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.
-
SpaceX to have a large-scale government bailout by end of 2022. ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ 20 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.
-
SpaceX to declare bankruptcy by end of 2022 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ 25 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.
-
First Starship attempt to reach orbit or near orbit will either never reach supersonic speed or will break up before reaching Max Q. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-23; known on 2023-01-01.
-
SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 47% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-30; known on 2027-01-01.