At least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Aug 1, 2014.

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• Malcolm Ocean estimated 60% on 2013-07-22
• Malcolm Ocean said ““Taking part” requires they have followed the steps here, contemporaneously with the original schedule: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hyr/pilot_study_polyphasic_sleep_in_ten_steps/ ” on 2013-07-22
• Malcolm Ocean said ““Taking part” requires they have followed the steps here, contemporaneously with the original schedule: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hyr/pilot_study_polyphasic_sleep_in_ten_steps/ ” on 2013-07-22
• lavalamp said “Shouldn’t your estimate of 3 people for Aug 1st be higher than your estimate for Jan 1st?” on 2013-07-26
• gwern said “as I understand it, none of them continued except Matt Fallshaw; marking both wrong” on 2017-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.