At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Aug 1, 2014.

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• Malcolm Ocean estimated 30% on 2013-07-22
• Malcolm Ocean changed the deadline from “on 2014-08-01” and changed their prediction from “At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Aug 1, 2014. “Taking part” requires they have followed the steps here, contemporaneously with the original schedule: http://enterthoughts” on 2013-07-22
• Malcolm Ocean said ““Taking part” requires they have followed the steps here, contemporaneously with the original schedule: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hyr/pilot_study_polyphasic_sleep_in_ten_steps/ ” on 2013-07-22
• gwern said “how many are participating?” on 2013-07-24
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.