Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 —Tachi Yamada

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known in 10 days

• gwern estimated 70% on 2011-01-03
• gwern said “‘Certainly, we will be polio-free and probably will have been for more than a decade [in 2035].’ ” on 2011-01-03
• gwern said “http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/jan/02/25-predictions-25-years” on 2011-01-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2011-01-04
• Anubhav estimated 80% on 2011-10-12
• gwern estimated 50% and said “revise based on the criticisms in http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/01/health/01polio.html” on 2012-01-17
• Leo estimated 30% on 2012-01-25
• Anubhav estimated 50% and said “I find it amusing that the NIH guy flat-out admits that Gates knows better.” on 2012-02-28
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-07
• regex estimated 60% on 2017-09-22
• pranomostro estimated 55% on 2019-01-08