Congress authorizes a deal to send F-16s to Poland in exchange for Poland sending Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.

• Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 55% on 2022-03-06
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/ukrainian-president-asks-congress-to-help-secure-russian-made-jet-fighters-11646511532” on 2022-03-06
• two2thehead estimated 51% and said “The and condition makes it less likely, but I’m almost certain it’s going to happen” on 2022-03-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 24% on 2022-03-06
• Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 30% and said “Poland maybe got cold feet. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/u-s-hunts-for-options-to-get-polish-combat-planes-to-ukraine-11646597790” on 2022-03-07
• Baeboo estimated 27% on 2022-03-07
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “Related: https://predictionbook.com/predictions/207304” on 2022-03-08
• two2thehead estimated 55% and said “I’m assuming the above linked prediction to be a subset of this prediction” on 2022-03-08
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “two2thehead: see comment on other prediction. ” on 2022-03-09
• two2thehead estimated 45% and said “alright. let’s see what Poland officially says. the key seems to be whether Poland acknowledges this, or whether they want to maintain a modicum of plausible deniability” on 2022-03-09
• two2thehead estimated 30% on 2022-03-09
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “Related: https://predictionbook.com/predictions/207331” on 2022-03-10
• Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 5% on 2022-03-10
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% and said “#war #ukraine” on 2022-03-11
• Baeboo estimated 15% on 2022-03-11
• Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 1% on 2022-04-03
• Tapetum-Lucidum   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-01-29.

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