Facebook will be less visitors in 2011

Created by Laus_CB on 2011-01-04; known on 2011-11-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-01.

• Laus_CB estimated 60% on 2011-01-04
• gwern said “Clarify please. There will be fewer active accounts on FB? Fewer billions of hits? only scores of millions of new accounts rather than hundreds? and so on” on 2011-01-04
• gwern estimated 10% and said “reserve right to change if Laus had some oddball metric in mind. does FB even release these numbers or are we depending on tech blogger pundit guesses?” on 2011-01-04
• gimpf estimated 1% and said “Mostly guesses, except major-milestone announcement, external visitor/month assessments.” on 2011-01-09
• gimpf said “With FB going “financially public”, we should be able to backtrack more easily in future.” on 2011-01-09
• Konkvistador estimated 20% on 2011-07-22
• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-10-10
• chemotaxis101 estimated 10% on 2011-11-15
• gwern said “is anyone going to dispute this or should I just mark it wrong?” on 2011-11-30
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-01.