katla volcano will not erupt in 2011

Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• scav estimated 80% on 2011-01-05
• gwern estimated 95% on 2011-01-05
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-12-31.