By January 2014, a default opted-in Internet Porn Filter will be deployed in >40% of the households in the UK.

Created by sdr on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2014-02-01.

• sdr estimated 40% on 2013-07-31
• sdr said “http://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/1irsvg/all_19m_homes_connected_to_the_internet_to_be/cb7s1bs” on 2013-07-31
• sdr said “http://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/1irsvg/all_19m_homes_connected_to_the_internet_to_be/cb7f72j” on 2013-07-31
• gwern estimated 30% and said “this sounds like a pretty fast deployment – just 4 months?” on 2013-08-02
• halfwit said “47” on 2013-08-02
• halfwit estimated 47% on 2013-08-02
• RandomThinker estimated 25% and said “Sounds grandiose. I think > 40% of households in the UK want porn.” on 2013-08-05
• sdr said “Bear in mind, >60% deployment is basically done by railroading it through the 4 major ISPs. When the piratebay filter was deployed, it took ~2-3 months from inception to having it blocked by all 4 ISPs.” on 2013-08-10
• sdr said “http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25430582” on 2013-12-19
• sdr estimated 45% and said “https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6954035” on 2013-12-23
• sdr   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-02-01.