Ecuador to be paid 3.6bn USD to not develop its oil reserves & preserve its rainforest.
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-08-17.
- gwern estimated 5% on 2011-01-06
- gwern said “‘The plan, however, will only reportedly go through if the first $100m is secured before the end of 2011.’” on 2011-01-06
- gwern said “http://www.newenergyworldnetwork.com/renewable-energy-news/by-technology/energy-efficiency/ecuador-seeks-3-6bn-to-stop-rainforest-oil-development.html” on 2011-01-06
- gwern said “http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/01/thwarted-markets-in-everything.html points out serious long-term issues with sovereign commitment” on 2011-01-06
- gwern changed their prediction from “Ecuador be paid 3.6bn USD to not develop its oil reserves & preserve its rainforest.” on 2011-01-06
- JFE estimated 2% on 2011-01-06
- gimpf estimated 2% on 2011-01-09
- gwern said “hm, they may or may not have gotten their initial 100m USD: http://blog.sfgate.com/manderson/2011/12/19/crude-politics-is-chevron-involved-in-a-billion-dollar-bait-and-switch-in-ecuador/ so I can’t mark it wrong just yet.” on 2012-01-01
- gwern said “http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201112301330dowjonesdjonline000317&title=2nd-updateecuadors-correa-extends-yasuni-itt-initiative thinks the next deadline is in 2013, so we’ll see what happens by then.” on 2012-01-01
- gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-01-01
- gwern said “oh yes, background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yasun%C3%AD-ITT_Initiative” on 2012-01-01
- RandomThinker said “Apple is over 100B now, Microsoft is around 70B” on 2012-05-05
- RandomThinker estimated 5% and said “Oop wrong question. I doubt any country is going to be paid for environmental reasons” on 2012-05-05
- gwern said “http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/17/business/energy-environment/ecuador-drops-plan-to-ban-drilling-in-jungle.html no surprise there” on 2013-08-17
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2013-08-17.