Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020

Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.

  • workbean estimated 80% on 2013-08-06
  • phreeza said “by when?on 2013-08-06
  • RandomThinker estimated 25% and said “assuming by 2020on 2013-08-07
  • workbean changed the deadline from “on 2020-01-16” and changed their prediction from “Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate” on 2013-08-07
  • RandomThinker said “I have to add Lex Luthor’s quote here: “Lex Luthor: Do you know how much power I’d have to give up to be [senator]?”on 2013-08-08
  • Theaetetus estimated 25% on 2013-08-13
  • JoshuaZ said “How do we tell if he used his influence or not in event of such a run?on 2013-08-14
  • Flipnash estimated 40% on 2013-08-17
  • Ben Doherty estimated 30% on 2013-08-20
  • RandomThinker said “Actually Bezos completely bald looks a bit like Lex Luthor.on 2013-11-16
  • gwern estimated 2% and said “figure 1 in 10 tech billionaires run in their lifetimes for any political office; figure 1/3 that Bezos will do so in the next 7 years rather than in the 40ish years of his life left;on 2013-11-16
  • gwern said “ figure 1/3 that it will be the Senate rather than the house, presidency, or a governorship… 0.1 * 0.33 * 0.33 = 1%on 2013-11-16
  • gwern said “JoshuaZ: I will judge this simply as Bezos runs for Senate by 2020. I don’t think it will make a difference.on 2013-11-16
  • bobpage estimated 1% on 2013-11-16
  • jbeshir estimated 2% on 2013-11-16
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% and said “Only this high because I am deferring slightly to the others’ beliefs.on 2013-11-16
  • adbge estimated 2% on 2013-11-16
  • atroche estimated 1% on 2013-12-29
  • Nithi estimated 5% on 2014-01-23
  • Ken estimated 2% on 2014-06-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2014-06-11
  • anonym estimated 3% on 2014-09-30
  • memoriesofbutter estimated 1% on 2015-10-19
  • equivrel estimated 4% on 2016-02-14
  • pranomostro estimated 2% on 2018-11-25
  • Baeboo estimated 1% on 2018-12-12
  • deleteyourbrain estimated 10% on 2019-04-26
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 1% on 2019-04-26
  • krazemon estimated 2% on 2019-05-11
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “He hasn’t done so.on 2020-01-17
  • Tapetum-Lucidum   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-17.

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