Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020

Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 8 days ago.

  • workbean estimated 80% on 2013-08-06
  • phreeza said “by when?on 2013-08-06
  • RandomThinker estimated 25% and said “assuming by 2020on 2013-08-07
  • workbean changed the deadline from “9 days ago” and changed their prediction from “Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate” on 2013-08-07
  • RandomThinker said “I have to add Lex Luthor’s quote here: “Lex Luthor: Do you know how much power I’d have to give up to be [senator]?”on 2013-08-08
  • Theaetetus estimated 25% on 2013-08-13
  • JoshuaZ said “How do we tell if he used his influence or not in event of such a run?on 2013-08-14
  • Flipnash estimated 40% on 2013-08-17
  • Ben Doherty estimated 30% on 2013-08-20
  • RandomThinker said “Actually Bezos completely bald looks a bit like Lex Luthor.on 2013-11-16
  • gwern estimated 2% and said “figure 1 in 10 tech billionaires run in their lifetimes for any political office; figure 1/3 that Bezos will do so in the next 7 years rather than in the 40ish years of his life left;on 2013-11-16
  • gwern said “ figure 1/3 that it will be the Senate rather than the house, presidency, or a governorship… 0.1 * 0.33 * 0.33 = 1%on 2013-11-16
  • gwern said “JoshuaZ: I will judge this simply as Bezos runs for Senate by 2020. I don’t think it will make a difference.on 2013-11-16
  • bobpage estimated 1% on 2013-11-16
  • jbeshir estimated 2% on 2013-11-16
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% and said “Only this high because I am deferring slightly to the others’ beliefs.on 2013-11-16
  • adbge estimated 2% on 2013-11-16
  • atroche estimated 1% on 2013-12-29
  • Nithi estimated 5% on 2014-01-23
  • Ken estimated 2% on 2014-06-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2014-06-11
  • anonym estimated 3% on 2014-09-30
  • memoriesofbutter estimated 1% on 2015-10-19
  • equivrel estimated 4% on 2016-02-14
  • pranomostro estimated 2% on 2018-11-25
  • Baeboo estimated 1% on 2018-12-12
  • deleteyourbrain estimated 10% on 2019-04-26
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 1% on 2019-04-26
  • krazemon estimated 2% on 2019-05-11
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “He hasn’t done so.8 days ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum   judged this prediction wrong 8 days ago.

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