Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.
- workbean estimated 80% on 2013-08-06
- phreeza said “by when?” on 2013-08-06
- RandomThinker estimated 25% and said “assuming by 2020” on 2013-08-07
- workbean changed the deadline from “on 2020-01-16” and changed their prediction from “Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate” on 2013-08-07
- RandomThinker said “I have to add Lex Luthor’s quote here: “Lex Luthor: Do you know how much power I’d have to give up to be [senator]?”” on 2013-08-08
- Theaetetus estimated 25% on 2013-08-13
- JoshuaZ said “How do we tell if he used his influence or not in event of such a run?” on 2013-08-14
- Flipnash estimated 40% on 2013-08-17
- Ben Doherty estimated 30% on 2013-08-20
- RandomThinker said “Actually Bezos completely bald looks a bit like Lex Luthor.” on 2013-11-16
- gwern estimated 2% and said “figure 1 in 10 tech billionaires run in their lifetimes for any political office; figure 1/3 that Bezos will do so in the next 7 years rather than in the 40ish years of his life left;” on 2013-11-16
- gwern said “ figure 1/3 that it will be the Senate rather than the house, presidency, or a governorship… 0.1 * 0.33 * 0.33 = 1%” on 2013-11-16
- gwern said “JoshuaZ: I will judge this simply as Bezos runs for Senate by 2020. I don’t think it will make a difference.” on 2013-11-16
- PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2013-11-16
- jbeshir estimated 2% on 2013-11-16
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% and said “Only this high because I am deferring slightly to the others’ beliefs.” on 2013-11-16
- adbge estimated 2% on 2013-11-16
- atroche estimated 1% on 2013-12-29
- Nithi estimated 5% on 2014-01-23
- Ken estimated 2% on 2014-06-11
- JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2014-06-11
- anonym estimated 3% on 2014-09-30
- memoriesofbutter estimated 1% on 2015-10-19
- equivrel estimated 4% on 2016-02-14
- pranomostro estimated 2% on 2018-11-25
- Baeboo estimated 1% on 2018-12-12
- deleteyourbrain estimated 10% on 2019-04-26
- PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2019-04-26
- krazemon estimated 2% on 2019-05-11
- PseudonymousUser said “He hasn’t done so.” on 2020-01-17
- PseudonymousUser judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-17.