'1.8-inch and 3.5-inch [hard] disk drives will die' and 2.5 inch drives thrive in 2011 —Robert X. Cringely

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-02.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-01-06
• gwern said “http://www.cringely.com/2011/01/2011-prediction-3-1-8-inch-and-3-5-inch-disk-drives-will-die/ ” on 2011-01-06
• gwern said “I think I buy the commentators’ arguments that the desktop OEMs simply won’t switch this fast, and a more sensible death forecast is in 2012-2014” on 2011-01-06
• gimpf estimated 15% on 2011-01-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2011-01-22
• PseudonymousUser said “3.5" drives are still going strong” on 2012-01-02
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-02.
• gwern said “cringely agrees this was wrong: http://www.cringely.com/2012/01/what-hath-bob-wrought-looking-back-at-cringelys-2011-predictions/” on 2012-01-02