'the next Mayor of Chicago is Rahm Emanuel' —SarahC
- gwern estimated 75% on 2011-01-06
- gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_Chicago#List_of_mayors” on 2011-01-06
- gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39k5” on 2011-01-06
- Nic_Smith estimated 97% and said “Simply following Intrade on this one.” on 2011-02-15
- gwern said “retrospect, I should gone with conventional wisdom and was way underconfident in this. even allowing for my ignorance of chicago politics, 80% was much better” on 2011-02-23
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2011-02-23.
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