'General AI will not be made in 2011.' —JoshuaZ

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 98% on 2011-01-06
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39kc” on 2011-01-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 90% on 2011-01-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 90% on 2011-01-08
• gimpf estimated 99% on 2011-01-09
• gwern said “see also http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/3ae0” on 2011-01-10
• scav estimated 99% on 2011-01-11
• Nic_Smith estimated 99% on 2011-01-12
• luminosity estimated 99% on 2011-01-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2011-01-21
• fergus estimated 99% on 2011-08-18
• norvig estimated 99% on 2011-08-18
• Anubhav estimated 100% on 2011-10-12
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-12-31.