'The removal of DADT by the US military will result in fewer than 300 soldiers leaving the military in protest.' —JoshuaZ

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-08.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2011-01-06
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39kc” on 2011-01-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 95% on 2011-01-06
• kallman estimated 85% and said “Though a lot of soldiers remain closeted regardless, fearing issues.” on 2011-01-10
• JoshuaZ said “Has anyone seen any data about this? I expected a lot more groups to be trying to measure this but it seems like almost no one has. The number does look tiny though. ” on 2011-11-17
• gwern said “WP doesn’t list any resignations, and only the marine corps seems really upset in surveys: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t_ask,don%27t_tell#Military_personnelopinion” on 2012-01-05
• gwern said “looked in Google News for ’"don’t ask, don’t tell" military (resignation OR resign OR quit OR protest)’ and found nothing really. anyone object to marking right?” on 2012-01-05
• JoshuaZ said “I can’t find a single example where someone has explicitly said they resigned due to it. I’m going to mark this right. ” on 2012-01-08
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2012-01-08.