Will the Brier score on all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts be greater than or equal to 0.17085?

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.

  • niplav estimated 10% on 2022-09-27
  • niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data.on 2022-09-27
  • niplav said “Accuracy between forecasts.on 2022-09-27
  • Baeboo said “#metaculuson 2022-09-27
  • Baeboo estimated 22% on 2022-09-27
  • niplav said “Brier score is 0.17011375312003707, resolves negativey.on 2022-10-02
  • niplav   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-02.
  • niplav said “After removing forecasts with negative ranges, the Brier score is actually 0.1713050461310057, so this resolves positively.on 2022-10-02
  • niplav   judged this prediction right on 2022-10-02.
  • niplav said “Correction: Yes, with the Brier score being ≈0.17245on 2022-10-03

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