Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11653 | 16240 | 16689 | 17377 | 31095 | 7982 | 101036 |
Recent Predictions
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Will the variance of the forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 478494147? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the modal forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.64 days? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the mean forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1613.62 days? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the median forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.64 days? ( 48% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the variance of the forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1.42e+49? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the modal forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.18 days? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the median forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.18 days? ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the intercept of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 0.0388? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the intercept of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the slope of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 0.00305? ( 83% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the slope of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the horizon for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 9 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the horizon for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.5 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.5 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 99% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.77613e-20 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the intercept for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 33.48197 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the slope for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -7.9206883 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 38% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the p-value for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.81493 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.17513 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 98% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -5.19915e-6 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 48% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the correlation between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -0.00994 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 48% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the correlation between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the forecasts be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the horizon for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 75 days for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the horizon for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 1340 days for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.5 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.9579 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the intercept for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 3.5976667e-4 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the slope for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -1.08226e-6 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the p-value for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 1.8994e-6 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts ( 35% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.1675 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 20% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 95% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than orequal to 1.4922e-5 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 40% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 45% confidence; 9 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the correlation between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.02166 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 40% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the correlation between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 45% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the Brier score on all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts be greater than or equal to 0.17085? ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.