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Will the correlation between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts?

#metaculus

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.

  • niplav estimated 45% on 2022-09-27
  • niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts.” on 2022-09-27
  • Baeboo said “#metaculus” on 2022-09-27
  • niplav   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-02.
  • niplav said “No. The correlation is ≈-0.11456779” on 2022-10-02
  • niplav said “Correction: Yes. The correlation is ≈0.0868.” on 2022-10-02
  • niplav   judged this prediction right on 2022-10-02.
  • niplav said “Correction: The correlation is actually ≈0.0831.” on 2022-10-02
  • niplav said “Correction: Yes. The correlation is ≈0.0798” on 2022-10-03