Will the correlation between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.02166 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts?
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
- niplav estimated 40% on 2022-09-27
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts.” on 2022-09-27
- Baeboo said “#metaculus” on 2022-09-27
- niplav said “No, the actual value is ≈-5.02466e-04” on 2022-10-02
- niplav judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-02.
- niplav said “Correction: The correlation is ≈-0.11456779.Always check your code for bugs.” on 2022-10-02
- niplav said “Another correction: The result is Yes. The correlation is ≈0.0868.” on 2022-10-02
- niplav judged this prediction right on 2022-10-02.
- niplav said “Correction: The correlation is actually ≈0.0831, after removing forecasts with negative ranges.” on 2022-10-02
- niplav said “Correction: Yes. The correlation is ≈0.0798” on 2022-10-03
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