Will the correlation between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.02166 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts?

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.

  • niplav estimated 40% on 2022-09-27
  • niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts.on 2022-09-27
  • Baeboo said “#metaculuson 2022-09-27
  • niplav said “No, the actual value is ≈-5.02466e-04on 2022-10-02
  • niplav   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-02.
  • niplav said “Correction: The correlation is ≈-0.11456779.Always check your code for bugs.on 2022-10-02
  • niplav said “Another correction: The result is Yes. The correlation is ≈0.0868.on 2022-10-02
  • niplav   judged this prediction right on 2022-10-02.
  • niplav said “Correction: The correlation is actually ≈0.0831, after removing forecasts with negative ranges.on 2022-10-02
  • niplav said “Correction: Yes. The correlation is ≈0.0798on 2022-10-03

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