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Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts?

#metaculus

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.

  • niplav estimated 45% on 2022-09-27
  • niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts” on 2022-09-27
  • Baeboo said “#metaculus” on 2022-09-27
  • niplav said “No, the actual value is -5.02466097e-04.” on 2022-10-02
  • niplav said “Oops, retracting previous comment. Wrong question.” on 2022-10-02
  • niplav said “No, with the actual value being -4.802460157641513e-12.” on 2022-10-02
  • niplav   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-02.
  • niplav said “Correction (again, hopefully the last one): the actual value being -4.861109258128744e-10.” on 2022-10-02
  • niplav said “Correction (pls pls let this actually be the last one): Yes, with the actual value being 8.234298949517477e-10.” on 2022-10-02
  • niplav   judged this prediction right on 2022-10-02.
  • niplav said “Correction: The actual value being 7.886987831441408e-10” on 2022-10-02
  • niplav said “Correction: Yes, with the actual value being ≈6.5407e-5.” on 2022-10-03