Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than orequal to 1.4922e-5 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts?
- niplav estimated 40% on 2022-09-27
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts.” on 2022-09-27
- Baeboo said “#metaculus” on 2022-09-27
- niplav said “No, actual value is -4.802460157641513e-12.” on 2022-10-02
- niplav judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-02.
- niplav said “Correction (again, hopefully the last one): the actual value being -4.861109258128744e-10” on 2022-10-02
- niplav said “Correction: The actual value is 8.234298949517477e-10.” on 2022-10-02
- niplav said “This doesn’t change the outcome.” on 2022-10-02
- niplav said “Correction: the actual value being 7.886987831441408e-10, with negative-ranged forecasts removed.” on 2022-10-02
- niplav said “Correction: Yes, with the actual value being ≈6.5407e-5.” on 2022-10-03
- niplav judged this prediction right on 2022-10-03.
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