Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.1675 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts?

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.

  • niplav estimated 20% on 2022-09-27
  • niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts.on 2022-09-27
  • Baeboo said “#metaculuson 2022-09-27
  • niplav said “Yes, actual value is ~0.17.on 2022-10-02
  • niplav   judged this prediction right on 2022-10-02.
  • niplav said “Correction: No, actual value is ≈0.1553.on 2022-10-02
  • niplav   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-02.
  • niplav said “Correction: actual value is 0.15699128187976738on 2022-10-02
  • niplav said “Correction: actual value is ≈0.15855.on 2022-10-03

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