Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.1675 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts?

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.

• niplav estimated 20% on 2022-09-27
• niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts.” on 2022-09-27
• Baeboo said “#metaculus” on 2022-09-27
• niplav said “Yes, actual value is ~0.17.” on 2022-10-02
• niplav   judged this prediction right on 2022-10-02.
• niplav said “Correction: No, actual value is ≈0.1553.” on 2022-10-02
• niplav   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-02.
• niplav said “Correction: actual value is 0.15699128187976738” on 2022-10-02
• niplav said “Correction: actual value is ≈0.15855.” on 2022-10-03