Will the p-value for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 1.8994e-6 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts
- niplav estimated 35% on 2022-09-27
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts.” on 2022-09-27
- Baeboo said “#metaculus” on 2022-09-27
- niplav said “Yes, actual value is ≈0.8092.” on 2022-10-02
- niplav judged this prediction right on 2022-10-02.
- niplav said “No, actual value scipy gives is 0.0 (?)” on 2022-10-02
- niplav judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-02.
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