Will the slope for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -1.08226e-6 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts?
- niplav estimated 40% on 2022-09-30
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” on 2022-09-30
- niplav said “No. Real answer is (apparently?) -1.” on 2022-10-02
- niplav judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-02.
- niplav said “Correction: No. Real answer is -4.98388e-3.” on 2022-10-03
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