Will the intercept for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 3.5976667e-4 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts?

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.

• niplav estimated 20% on 2022-09-30
• niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” on 2022-09-30
• niplav said “Yes. Real value is 1.” on 2022-10-02
• niplav   judged this prediction right on 2022-10-02.
• niplav said “No. Real value is 1.0611e-17.” on 2022-10-03
• niplav   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-03.

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