Will the horizon for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 1340 days for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts?
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.
- niplav estimated 60% on 2022-09-30
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” on 2022-09-30
- niplav said “Actual value is 4.178 days.” on 2022-10-02
- niplav judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-02.
- niplav said “Correction: No. Actual value is ≈637.7 days.” on 2022-10-03
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