Will the horizon for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 75 days for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts?
- niplav estimated 55% on 2022-09-30
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” on 2022-09-30
- niplav said “Yes. Actual value is ≈9660208.5 days.” on 2022-10-02
- niplav judged this prediction right on 2022-10-02.
- niplav said “Correction: Yes. Actual value is ≈111.8 days.” on 2022-10-03
Please log in to respond to or judge prediction