Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the forecasts be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts?
- niplav estimated 55% on 2022-09-30
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” on 2022-09-30
- niplav said “The MSE is 0.052517449584277766 for exponential fit, 0.056682406889118776 for logistic fit. Makes exponential better, and resolves this negatively.” on 2022-10-02
- niplav said “Correction: Yes. The MSE is ≈0.05278 for exponential fit, ≈0.05049 for logistic fit. Makes logistic better, and resolves this positively.” on 2022-10-03
- niplav judged this prediction right on 2022-10-03.
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