Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.17513 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
- niplav estimated 40% on 2022-09-30
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” on 2022-09-30
- niplav said “Yes, the actual value is ≈0.17948.” on 2022-10-03
- niplav judged this prediction right on 2022-10-03.
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