Will the p-value for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.81493 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.

• niplav estimated 10% on 2022-09-30
• niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” on 2022-09-30
• niplav said “No, actual p-value is ~0.5613 (still very big!)” on 2022-10-03
• niplav   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-03.