Will the p-value for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.81493 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
- niplav estimated 10% on 2022-09-30
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” on 2022-09-30
- niplav said “No, actual p-value is ~0.5613 (still very big!)” on 2022-10-03
- niplav judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-03.
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