Will the slope for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -7.9206883 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
- niplav estimated 38% on 2022-09-30
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” on 2022-09-30
- niplav said “Yes. Actual value is ≈-4.9839e-3.” on 2022-10-03
- niplav judged this prediction right on 2022-10-03.
Please log in to respond to or judge prediction