Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.5 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.

• niplav estimated 99% on 2022-09-30
• niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” on 2022-09-30
• niplav said “Yes, barely. Actual value is 0.5. That was way overconfident of me…” on 2022-10-03
• niplav   judged this prediction right on 2022-10-03.