'SpaceX will successfully complete orbit-matching and docking with the International Space Station' —Sketerpot

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2011-01-07
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39mn” on 2011-01-07
• gimpf estimated 60% on 2011-01-09
• sketerpot estimated 70% and said “Revised upward, because 60% seemed a little too low.” on 2011-01-11
• Konkvistador estimated 30% on 2011-07-21
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.