Jared Loughner will be reported to be a registered Republican or Conservative, or will be reported to have attended a Tea Party event/rally

Created by gwern on 2011-01-08; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-03.

• gwern estimated 75% on 2011-01-08
• gwern said “background: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Tucson_shooting” on 2011-01-08
• gwern said “republicans ~half registered voters: http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/azelections/articles/2010/08/17/20100817arizona-registered-voters-increases.html” on 2011-01-08
• gwern said “early coverage of his online stuff makes him look like a liberal, if anything. not feeling optimistic anymore…” on 2011-01-09
• gwern changed their prediction from “Jared Laughner will be reported to be a registered Republican or Conservative, or will be reported to have attended a Tea Party event/rally” on 2011-01-10
• Nic_Smith estimated 10% and said “Reports are that his most recent registration was independent: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20028120-503544.html” on 2011-01-12
• Nic_Smith said “In the same article, an acquaintance describes him as not the sort who ‘was in a certain party or went to rallies’” on 2011-01-12
• gwern said “well, keep in mind he did go to rallies – went to a Giffords one where he asked that odd question” on 2011-01-12
• gwern said “even if he did turn out to have visited a tea party rally, I feel like I morally lost this prediction. so if you want to close it as wrong go ahead” on 2011-01-12
• Nic_Smith   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-02-03.