'“Core inflation” of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%' —CronoDAS
- gwern estimated 75% on 2011-01-10
- gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39xy” on 2011-01-10
- gwern said “this is of course a prediction about the core CPI: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/” on 2011-01-10
- gwern said “2.15%, ouch: http://ycharts.com/indicators/us_core_inflation_rate#startDate close, but no cigar especially given how much off as a percent that is” on 2012-01-10
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-10.
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