'The fifth book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series will be published: 5%' —CronoDAS

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-07-24.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-01-10
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39xy” on 2011-01-10
• gwern said “don’t read GRRM (waiting for it to be over one way or another), so deferring to CronoDAS” on 2011-01-10
• muflax   judged this prediction right on 2011-07-24.
• muflax said “got released about 2 weeks ago: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Dance_with_Dragons” on 2011-07-24