In the 2016 US presidential election, dealing with the NSA etc. will not be ignored and will be a serious debate issue, on par with the economy or abortion.
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2016-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-09.
- ygert estimated 80% on 2013-09-25
- Omid estimated 20% on 2013-09-25
- adbge estimated 35% on 2013-09-25
- ygert changed the deadline from “on 2016-11-01” on 2013-09-27
- ygert said “ (Either with the candidates disagreeing over whether what they did was evil or justified, or with them both condemning it.)” on 2013-09-27
- ygert changed the deadline from “on 2016-11-01” and changed their prediction from “In the 2016 US presidential election, dealing with the NSA etc. will not be ignored and will be a serious debate issue, on par with the economy or abortion. (Either with the candidates disagreeing over whether what they did was evil or justified, or with” on 2013-09-27
- HonoreDB estimated 60% on 2013-09-27
- RandomThinker estimated 25% and said “What country do you think the US is? A democratic one where the people call the shots?” on 2013-09-28
- ygert said “Democracy is as democracy does, and how much effect the people have on policy is in question, at least in a democracy the people control what issue the politicians bluster on about.” on 2013-09-29
- ygert said “Democracy is as democracy does, and while how much effect the people have on policy is in question, at least in a democracy the people control what issue the politicians bluster on about.” on 2013-09-29
- Michael Dickens estimated 40% on 2013-09-30
- JoshuaZ said “How is one going to decide this? Criteria may matter here. ” on 2013-10-01
- ygert said “@JoshuaZ: That is why I aimed the prediction so high. If it’s big to that extent, we’ll know that it is.” on 2013-10-01
- JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2013-10-01
- sdr estimated 35% and said “Obama had, during his first election, made specific promises regarding this, none of which actually stood up to the test of time. So debate might be used for marketing, but not action.” on 2013-10-02
- Ben Doherty estimated 50% on 2013-10-03
- avalade estimated 20% on 2013-10-03
- tylercurtis estimated 30% on 2013-10-03
- ygert estimated 55% on 2013-10-06
- themusicgod1 said “from the perspective of an outsider, Trump sure treated it as a serious issue. Of course his stance on it was ‘spy on people more’, but still.” on 2016-11-02
- gwern said “ironically, abortion was a non-issue this election because of Trump’s past support, and the NSA came up more than abortion but less than the economy. ‘serious debate issue’? dunno…” on 2016-11-06
- two2thehead said “I’d consider it a serious issue if Trump or Hillary consistently made speeches about it && it was mentioned in the debate. From this pov I don’t think it happened. Speeches count as something similar to Trump’s speech re Muslim ban. ” on 2016-11-07
- themusicgod1 said “Trump did make speeches about it…but from the perspective of ‘we need more spying’” on 2016-11-07
- kuudes judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.
- themusicgod1 said “I’m curious what ygert’s take on this is, did kuudes jump the gun?” on 2016-11-09
- two2thehead said “The && condition is important here. It IIRC wasn’t mentioned in any of the three presidential debates” on 2016-11-10
- ygert said “@themusicgod1: I’d agree that this prediction should indeed be judged “wrong”. Unfortunately, it simply wasn’t anywhere near as major an issue in the debates as I had thought it might be back in 2013.” on 2017-07-20