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I will go to jail

Created by Grognor on 2013-09-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2013-12-30.

  • Grognor estimated 15% on 2013-09-30
  • Grognor changed the deadline from “on 2013-09-30” on 2013-09-30
  • Grognor changed the deadline from “on 2013-10-01” on 2013-10-01
  • gwern estimated 10% on 2013-10-05
  • Tuxedage estimated 10% on 2013-10-05
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% and said “Before the end of the month?” on 2013-10-05
  • alecbrooks estimated 10% on 2013-10-08
  • mfb said “What did you do to estimate 15%?” on 2013-10-10
  • Jayson Virissimo said “Don’t answer that.” on 2013-10-11
  • nshepperd estimated 10% on 2013-10-11
  • drethelin estimated 5% on 2013-10-27
  • Grognor changed the deadline from “on 2013-10-29” on 2013-10-30
  • gwern said “Grognor, please stop editing this. If you want to make predictions for multiple time periods, make multiple predictions. don’t keep extending one deadline.” on 2013-11-15
  • Grognor   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-30.