A team will win the Google Lunar X PRIZE grand prize before the end of 2015

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2011-01-21
• gwern estimated 65% on 2011-01-22
• gwern estimated 50% on 2011-11-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2011-11-07
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.